BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) and Vinorelbine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticher2to determineprior
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialefficacy andand safetysafety ofthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• LUX-Breast 1: BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) in HER2-positive Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients After One Prior Herceptin Treatment NCT01125566 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Afatinib and Vinorelbine in Tumours Known to Overexpress EGFR and/or HER2 NCT00906698 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Phase I Open Label Trial to Assess Safety of BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) in Combination With Herceptin® in Patients With HER2-positive Advanced Breast Cancer. NCT00950742 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• LUX-Breast 2; Afatinib in HER2 (Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor)-Treatment Failures NCT01271725 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) for the Treatment of Patients With HER2-positive, Hormone-refractory Prostate Cancer NCT01320280 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.