Tadalafil and Nesiritide as Therapy in Pre-clinical Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (106 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularheartfractionejectioncell
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesmoderatescreeningvisitsevere
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 49.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 338 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 6964 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Determine How Cialis Effects the Renal Function in Response to Volume Expansion in Preclinical Diastolic Cardiomyopathy (Aim3) NCT02058095 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study to Determine How Cialis Effects the Renal Function in Response to Volume Expansion in Preclinical Systolic Cardiomyopathy (Aim2) NCT01970176 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Low Dose Intravenous (IV) Infusion of BNP in the Presence and Absence of Acute Type V Phosphodiesterase (PDE V) in Improving Renal Function in Hospitalized Chronic Heart Failure (CHF) Patients With Renal Dysfunction NCT00972569 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• CR Aim #2 - AT1 Receptor Blockade & ACE Inhibition Effect on Humoral Function NCT01678794 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Effectiveness of Sildenafil at Improving Health Outcomes and Exercise Ability in People With Diastolic Heart Failure (The RELAX Study) NCT00763867 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.