Safety Study to Evaluate MN-221 in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: definedacuteuncontrolledrisksubject
  Phrases that lowered it: visitdayallergyrespiratoryadministration
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluate the Safety of MN-221 in Subjects With Stable Moderate to Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01013142 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of MN-221 as an Adjunct to Standard Therapy in Subjects Experiencing an Acute Exacerbation of Asthma NCT00838591 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating the Safety and Effects of MN-221 in Subjects Experiencing an Acute Exacerbation of Asthma NCT00683449 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating the Safety and Effects of MN-221 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Asthma NCT00679263 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of Once Daily Inhaled Doses of GSK573719 Made With Magnesium Stearate in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease(COPD)for 7 Days NCT00732472 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.