A Phase 3 Study Comparing Oral Ixazomib Plus Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone Versus Placebo Plus Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Adult Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationdiagnosisdefinedsyndromeuln
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantmyelomadays beforejapanese
• Sponsor's past trials: 212 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19212 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Ixazomib Plus Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone in Adult Japanese Participants With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02917941 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide/Low-dose Dexamethasone in Combination With Continuous Oral Cyclophosphamide Compared to Lenalidomide/Low-dose Dexamethasone Combined With Single Cyclophosphamide Doses IV in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01019174 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide vs Placebo Maintenance Therapy Following Melphalan Prednisone Velcade® Induction Therapy in NDMM NCT02112175 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Testing the Addition of Ixazomib/Placebo to Lenalidomide in Patients With Evidence of Residual Multiple Myeloma, OPTIMUM Trial NCT03941860 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Two Lenalidomide Dose Regimens With Low Dose Dexamethasone for the Treatment Relapsed Multiple Myeloma NCT01380106 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.