Investigation of Optimal Dosing Conditions for a Long Acting GLP-1 Analogue in Healthy Male Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-09-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseasemmolaminotransferaseacutefollowing
  Phrases that lowered it: healthytrialto evaluateevaluate thethe effect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 8 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 431 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Investigation on Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Single and Multiple Doses of a Long-acting GLP-1 Analogue (Semaglutide) in an Oral Formulation in Healthy Male Subjects NCT01866748 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Comparing Semaglutide Administered Subcutaneously Once Daily to Semaglutide Administered Subcutaneously Once Weekly NCT02557620 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Effect of Food on the Pharmacokinetics of Oral Semaglutide in Healthy Subjects NCT02172313 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Investigating the Pharmacokinetics of Subcutaneous Injections With 1 mg/mL, 3 mg/mL, and 10 mg/mL Semaglutide Strengths and the Absolute Bioavailability of Semaglutide NCT02231684 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Research Study Looking at New Protein-based Tablets in Healthy Men - Oral Formulation IV NCT06642584 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.