An Extension Study to WA19977 in Patients With Active Polyarticular-Course Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2013-12-03, after 2012-01-19 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: completedextensionlongidiopathicdisease
Phrases that lowered it: openlabelarthritispatientssafety -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 485 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 209 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 2 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 485 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 209 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2032 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1174 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tocilizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Long-Term Extension Study of RoActemra/Actemra (Tocilizumab) in Patients With Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis From France Who Completed WA19977 Core Study NCT01673919 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Long-Term Extension Study of RoActemra/Actemra (Tocilizumab) in Patients With Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Who Completed WA19977 Core Study NCT01667471 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
- An Extension Long-Term Study of RoActemra/Actemra (Tocilizumab) in Patients With Polyarticular Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Who Completed The WA19977 Study NCT01727986 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Long-Term Safety Extension Study of WA19926 in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01649804 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- A Long-Term Extension Study of RoActemra/Actemra (Tocilizumab) in Patients With Early Moderate to Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Completed Study WA19926 NCT01730456 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.