Nanoparticle-based Paclitaxel vs Solvent-based Paclitaxel as Part of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Early Breast Cancer (GeparSepto)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationpriorstagediseasepatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: positivetrialbreast cancercomparecycles
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Allocation: randomized (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Cabazitaxel Versus Weekly Paclitaxel as Neo-adjuvant Treatment in Patients With Triple Negative or Luminal B/HER2 Normal BC (GENEVIEVE) NCT01779479 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• TAC Versus TCX as Adjuvant Treatment for High-risk Her2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01354522 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Addition of Carboplatin to Neoadjuvant Therapy for Triple-negative and HER2-positive Early Breast Cancer NCT01426880 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Assessing the Efficacy of Paclitaxel and Olaparib in Comparison to Paclitaxel / Carboplatin Followed by Epirubicin/Cyclophosphamide as Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients With HER2-negative Early Breast Cancer and Homologous Recombination Deficiency NCT02789332 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Dual Blockage With Afatinib and Trastuzumab as Neoadjuvant Treatment for Patients With Locally Advanced or Operable Breast Cancer Receiving Taxane-anthracycline Containing Chemotherapy NCT01594177 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.