A Single Dose Study of the Safety, Blood Levels and Biological Effects of Aes-103 Compared to Placebo in Subjects With Stable Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (117 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-06-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellpainstablesubjects withdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsjudgeddrugsafetyevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Different Dose Regimens of Aes-103 Given for 28 Days to Subjects With Stable Sickle Cell Disease NCT01987908 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of FTX-6058 NCT04586985 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, And Pharmacodynamics Study Of PF-04447943, Co-Administered With And Without Hydroxyurea, In Subjects With Stable Sickle Cell Disease NCT02114203 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Study of PF-07209326 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Sickle Cell Disease NCT04255875 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Oral GSK4172239D Compared With Placebo in Sickle Cell Disease Participants Aged 18 to 50 Years NCT05660265 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.