A Phase Ib/II Study of BYL719 and Cetuximab in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticpatientschemotherapypriorphase ii
  Phrases that lowered it: basedsafety ofpharmacokineticsand safetytablets
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 297 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 452 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Carboplatin, Paclitaxel, Cetuximab, and Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer NCT01316757 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Dual Inhibition of EGFR With Afatinib and Cetuximab in the Treatment of Advanced Squamous Cell Cancers of the Head and Neck NCT02979977 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Study of Chemotherapy With Cisplatin/Carboplatin, and Docetaxel With or Without Erlotinib in Patients With Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinomas Amenable for Surgical Resection NCT01927744 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Combination Chemotherapy With or Without Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT01064479 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study in Head and Neck Cancer NCT01081041 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.