Finding the Optimum Regimen for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinegreateror equalequal tomonths prior
  Phrases that lowered it: drugtrialof studydrugs orsafety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 7 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 129 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10024 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sex: male (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 54073 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 4 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Historically Controlled Trial of Corticosteroids in Young Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT02167217 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Twice Weekly Steroids and Exercise as Therapy for DMD NCT04322357 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Trial of Pamrevlumab or Placebo in Combination With Systemic Corticosteroids in Participants With Ambulatory DMD NCT04632940 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Phase 3 Trial of Pamrevlumab or Placebo With Systemic Corticosteroids in Participants With Non-ambulatory Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT04371666 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of GSK2402968 in Subjects With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT01254019 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.