A Phase 1/2 Randomized, Blinded, Placebo Controlled Study of Ipilimumab in Combination With Epacadostat or Placebo in Subjects With Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticmelanomacancergradeunresectable
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectssafety ofscreeningagedthe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 31.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 769 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3 Study of Pembrolizumab + Epacadostat or Placebo in Subjects With Unresectable or Metastatic Melanoma (Keynote-252 / ECHO-301) NCT02752074 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Study of Epacadostat and Nivolumab in Combination With Immune Therapies in Participants With Advanced or Metastatic Malignancies (ECHO-208) NCT03347123 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab in Subjects With Previously Untreated Metastatic Uveal Melanoma NCT02626962 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Epacadostat Administered in Combination With Nivolumab in Select Advanced Cancers (ECHO-204) NCT02327078 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Epacadostat and Vaccine Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma NCT01961115 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.