Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (1,813 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-06-27, after 2015-05-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mesenchymal Stromal Cells for the Treatment of Non-union Fractures of Long Bones NCT02230514 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Mesenchymal Stem Cells to Treat Avascular Necrosis of the Hip NCT02065167 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Study on Autologous Osteoblastic Cells Implantation to Early Stage Osteonecrosis of the Femoral Head NCT01529008 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
- Evaluate the Effect of Bone Marrow Derived Cd133+ Cells in Patient With Osteonecrosis of Femoral Head NCT01198080 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Mesenchymal Stem Cell Transplantation in Osteoarthritis of Hip Joint NCT01499056 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.