Polyphenon E in Treating Patients With High-Risk of Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stageregistrationinstitutionalulndefined as
  Phrases that lowered it: colorectalweeksprior toinvestigationaldays
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 357 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 124 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Acetylsalicylic Acid and Eflornithine in Treating Patients at High Risk for Colorectal Cancer NCT00983580 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Phase I Chemoprevention Trial With Green Tea Polyphenon E & Erlotinib in Patients With Premalignant Lesions of the Head & Neck NCT01116336 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Irinotecan and Cetuximab With or Without Bevacizumab in Treating Patients With RAS Wild-Type Locally Advanced or Metastatic Colorectal Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT02292758 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, 2x2 Factorial Design Biomarker Prevention Trial of Low-dose ASA and Metformin in Stage I-III Crc Patients NCT03047837 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Reducing Duodenal Polyp Burden in Patients With Familial Adenomatous Polyposis at Risk of Developing Colon Cancer NCT02961374 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.