Vaccine Therapy and Cyclophosphamide in Treating Patients With Stage II-III Breast or Stage II-IV Ovarian, Primary Peritoneal, or Fallopian Tube Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stageivheartcancerdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: ovariantrialbreast cancerrangenormal
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 363 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 79013 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16887 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Folate Receptor Alpha Peptide Vaccine With GM-CSF Versus GM-CSF Alone in Patients With Platinum Sensitive Ovarian Cancer NCT02978222 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I Study of a Therapeutic Vaccine Candidate in Patients With Localized Breast Cancer at High-Risk of Relapse NCT02364492 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Autologous TLPO Vaccine Basket NCT06175221 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Vaccine Therapy in Treating Patients With Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT01376505 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Study of AutoSynVax™ Vaccine in Subjects With Advanced Cancer NCT02992977 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.