A Study of CNTO 136 (Sirukumab), a Human Anti-IL-6 Monoclonal Antibody, Administered Subcutaneously, in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Anti-TNF-Alpha Therapy (SIRROUND-T)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: administrationprior toivreceptorhas received
  Phrases that lowered it: rarheumatoidarthritisjointsmm
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 82 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of CNTO 136 (Sirukumab), Administered Subcutaneously, in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Disease-Modifying Antirheumatic Drug (DMARD) Therapy (SIRROUND-D) NCT01604343 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Study of CNTO 136 (Sirukumab) Administered Subcutaneously in Japanese Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Unresponsive to Methotrexate or Sulfasalazine NCT01689532 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of NI-071 in Participants With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RADIANCE) NCT02990806 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study of JNJ-40346527 in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Despite Disease-modifying Antirheumatic Drug Therapy NCT01597739 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate The Safety of SAR153191 (REGN88) and Tocilizumab Added to Other RA Drugs in Patients With RA Who Are Not Responding to or Intolerant of Anti-TNF Therapy (SARIL-RA-ASCERTAIN) NCT01768572 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.