Phase III Sequential Open-label Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Sorafenib Followed by Pazopanib Versus Pazopanib Followed by Sorafenib in the Treatment of Advanced / Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (SWITCH-II)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomasubjects withulnof normal
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofand safetyefficacy andpatients whoopen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sequential Study to Treat Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT00732914 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Toripalimab in Combination With Axitinib Versus Sunitinib Monotherapy in Advanced Renal Cell Cancer NCT04394975 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Trial to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Lenvatinib (18 mg vs. 14 mg) in Combination With Everolimus in Participants With Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT03173560 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• PK Trial of Sorafenib & Erlotinib in Patients With Refractory Solid Tumors NCT00759928 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Study of Panobinostat in Combination With Sorafenib in Kidney, Soft Tissue or Lung Cancers NCT01005797 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.