Multicenter Pilot-study for the Therapy of Medulloblastoma of Adults

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorulnpatientradiationtumors
  Phrases that lowered it: indexadultstudyclinical trialpostoperative
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Younger Patients With Newly Diagnosed, Non-metastatic Desmoplastic Medulloblastoma NCT02017964 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Vorinostat Combined With Isotretinoin and Chemotherapy in Treating Younger Patients With Embryonal Tumors of the Central Nervous System NCT00867178 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Personalized Risk-Adapted Therapy in Post-Pubertal Patients With Newly-Diagnosed Medulloblastoma NCT04402073 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Vaccine Immunotherapy for Recurrent Medulloblastoma and Primitive Neuroectodermal Tumor NCT01326104 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Study of Sequential High-dose Chemotherapy in Children With High Risk Medulloblastoma NCT02025881 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.