Phase II Study of GTx024 in Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 39% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectbreast canceror equalequal tometastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: copdchronic obstructiveobstructive pulmonarypulmonary diseaseblood pressure
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 42.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of GTx-024 in Patients With Androgen Receptor-Positive Triple Negative Breast Cancer (AR+ TNBC) NCT02368691 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of GTx-024 in Patients With Estrogen Receptor (ER)+/Androgen Receptor (AR)+ Breast Cancer NCT02463032 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Lasofoxifene Versus Fulvestrant in Advanced or Metastatic ER+/HER2- Breast Cancer With an ESR1 Mutation NCT03781063 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Efficacy Evaluation of Enobosarm Monotherapy in Treatment of AR+/ER+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT04869943 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Lasofoxifene Combined With Abemaciclib in Advanced or Metastatic ER+/HER2- Breast Cancer With an ESR1 Mutation NCT04432454 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.