Intranasal Oxytocin Treatment for Social Deficits in Children With Autism

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ivlargecardiacunstableevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: childrenhealthytrialregularsubject
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 258 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Oxytocin in Autism to Improve Reciprocal Social Behaviors NCT01944046 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study of Oxytocin for the Treatment of Social Impairment in Individuals With High Functioning Autism Spectrum Disorder NCT02985749 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Intranasal Oxytocin for the Treatment of Children and Adolescents With ASD (OXY) NCT01256060 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• INtranasal OXyTocin for the Treatment of Autism Spectrum Disorders NCT01788072 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Randomized, Controlled Trial of Intranasal Oxytocin as an Adjunct to Behavioral Therapy for Autism Spectrum Disorder NCT01914939 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.