A Phase I Study of BKM120 in Adult Chinese Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclcpatientcancereyesafety tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: corticosteroiddaycorticosteroidstreatment withinhaled
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 286 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 410 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of BKM120 in Adult Japanese Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01283503 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Safety of BKM120 Monotherapy in Advanced Solid Tumor Patients NCT01068483 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Cisplatin, Etoposide and PI3K Inhibitor BKM120 in Treating Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors or Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02194049 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Safety, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of BKM120 Plus GSK1120212 in Selected Advanced Solid Tumor Patients NCT01155453 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Gefitinib in Combination With BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, With Enrichment for Patients Whose Tumours Harbour Molecular Alterations of PI3K Pathway and Known to Overexpress EGFR NCT01570296 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.