Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate 3 Doses of a Novel Tetracycline in the Treatment of Facial Acne Vulgaris
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-01-31, after 2012-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationpriorassociatedeligibletreatment
Phrases that lowered it: acnevulgarismoderatetopicalto severe -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 12 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- sarecycline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Compare FCD105 Foam to Minocycline 3% Foam, Adapalene 0.3% Foam and Vehicle Foam. NCT04104685 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Efficacy & Safety Comparison of Epiduo With Doxycycline Versus Vehicle With Isotretinoin in the Treatment of Severe Acne NCT01474590 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Topical Administration of FMX-101 for Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Acne NCT02815267 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Minocycline Hydrochloride Foam in the Treatment of Moderate-to-severe Acne Vulgaris NCT04960930 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Topical Administration of FMX-101 for Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Acne NCT02815280 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.