A Placebo- and Ropinirole-Controlled Study for SPM 962 in Advanced Parkinson's Disease Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasscreeningsubject isplacebotime
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalsubject whoand safetysafety oftrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 79 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 227 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Long-Term Extension Trial From Phase II/III of SPM 962 in Early Parkinson's Disease Patients NCT01628965 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Long-Term Extension Trial From of SPM 962 in Advanced Parkinson's Disease Patients NCT01631825 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of SEP-363856 in Subjects With Parkinson's Disease Psychosis NCT02969369 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of 18 to 24mg/Day Ropinirole Controlled Release (CR) Tablets in Early and Advanced Parkinson's Disease (PD) Patients. NCT01929317 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• A Study of an Investigational Drug to See How it Affects the People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) Compared to an Approved Drug Used to Treat People With Parkinson's Disease Complicated by Motor Fluctuations (OFF Episodes) NCT03391882 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.