Open-Label Extension Study for the Long-Term Efficacy and Safety of Roxadustat in Participants With Dialysis and Non-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensionlong termkidneydialysiscompleted
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantefficacy andand safetysafety of
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 15 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Allocation: not applicable (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Roxadustat for the Treatment of Anemia in Participants With Chronic Kidney Disease and Not Receiving Dialysis NCT01750190 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Study of Roxadustat Conversion in Participants Receiving Stable Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agent (ESA) or as Initial Anemia Treatment in Chronic Dialysis Participants NCT04410198 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Study of Roxadustat in Non-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease Participants With Anemia NCT01244763 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Study of Roxadustat Conversion in Participants Receiving Stable ESA or as Initial Anemia Treatment in Hemodialysis Participants NCT04484857 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Study of Roxadustat (FG-4592) to Correct Anemia in Newly Initiated Dialysis Participants Not on Erythropoiesis-Stimulating Agent Treatment NCT01414075 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.