A Multiple-dose Study of LY3031207 in Healthy Participants
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2013-04-30, after 2012-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: longmultiplecholesteroldeterminedeffects
Phrases that lowered it: healthybodyjapaneseparticipantskg -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 203 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 667 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21173 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 667 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 203 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 115033 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 21173 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 76.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- celecoxib, simvastatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3050258 in Healthy Participants NCT01929707 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3509754 in Healthy Non-Japanese and Japanese Participants NCT04586920 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Multiple Doses of LY3305677 in Healthy Participants NCT03325387 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3053102 in Healthy Participants NCT01736241 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3050258 in Healthy Participants NCT02121834 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.