Efficacy and Safety of 2 Doses of Tiotropium Respimat® Compared to Placebo in Children With Severe Persistent Asthma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cardiacstablepriorimpairmentpatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: visitasthmatrialpatients whoperiod
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 37.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 164 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 11 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 6 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6995 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of 2 Doses of Tiotropium Respimat® Compared to Placebo in Children With Moderate Persistent Asthma NCT01634139 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of 2 Doses of Tiotropium Respimat Compared to Placebo in Adolescents With Severe Persistent Asthma NCT01277523 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Randomised, Double- Blind, Cross-over Efficacy and Safety Comparison of Three Different Doses of Tiotropium Administered Once Daily Versus Placebo in Patients With Moderate Persistent Asthma. NCT01233284 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of 2 Doses of Tiotropium Via Respimat in Adult Patients With Mild Persistent Asthma NCT01316380 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of 2 Doses of Tiotropium Via Respimat Compared to Placebo in Adolescents With Moderate Persistent Asthma NCT01257230 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.