Vitamin D3 Supplementation for Heart Failure Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-04-30, after 2012-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsfailureiiheartcongestive
Phrases that lowered it: placeboper dayblindclinicallydouble -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11529 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 12 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 52113 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11529 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Vitamin D Supplementation in Chronic Stable Heart Failure NCT01292720 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Vitamine D Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure NCT01535196 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
- Micronutrient Supplementation in Patients With Heart Failure NCT01005303 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D and Chronic Renal Insufficiency NCT00968877 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D3 Supplementation in Dialysis Patients NCT01312714 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.