Study of LY2409021 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-09-30, after 2012-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseaseevidenceheart failuredialysisdays
Phrases that lowered it: participantkgbodymass indexbmi -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 207 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 678 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 678 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 207 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 278 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 55 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- glucagon
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3325656 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT03115099 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study of Multiple Increasing Doses of LY2409021 in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01606397 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3537021 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT04586907 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study for Patients With Type 1 Diabetes NCT01049412 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY2605541 Versus Insulin Glargine on Blood Sugar NCT01654380 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.