An Open-label, Randomized Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of AUY922 vs Pemetrexed or Docetaxel in NSCLC Patients With EGFR Mutations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungsmalllarge cellpatients mustcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacyadvancedlabelegfropen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 452 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 298 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 18 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of AUY922 in Non-small-cell Lung Cancer Patients Who Have Received Previous Two Lines of Chemotherapy. NCT01124864 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• ARQ 197 Plus Erlotinib in Patient With Locally Advanced or Metastatic EGFR Mutation-positive Non-small-cell Lung Cancer NCT01580735 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• An Open Study of ASP8273 in Patients With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT02192697 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Antitumor Activity and Safety of BEBT-109, a Novel EGFR Inhibitor, in Previously Treated NSCLC NCT06001671 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• AZD9291 (Osimertinib) Versus Platinum-Based Doublet-Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02151981 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.