Phase I Study of GW856553 (Losmapimod)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-10-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebotolerabilityblindsubjectscontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: japanesehealthypharmacokineticmg20
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 371 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1627 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multiple Dose Study With Incremental Dosing to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Oral Doses of LEO 32731 in Healthy Male Japanese Subjects. NCT03231124 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Three-part Study to Determine the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of GSK1322322 in Healthy Volunteers and Healthy Male Japanese Subjects NCT01818011 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
• GSK2190915 Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study in Healthy Japanese Subjects NCT00955383 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Single and Repeat Doses of IV GSK2251052 in Healthy Male Japanese and Caucasian Subjects and Repeat Doses of Supratherapeutic Doses of IV GSK2251052 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01495065 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• Phase I Study of GSK2982772 in Japanese Healthy Male Participants NCT03590613 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.