Nebivolol for the Prevention of Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction in Patients With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-07-20, after 2012-02-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ventricularplacebo controlledblind placeborandomized doubledouble blind
Phrases that lowered it: asthmatrialthe effectdruginhibitors -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 151 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 221 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 15 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 10 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 10 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 15 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 221 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 151 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3629 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1292 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 59.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, neurology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nebivolol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Therapeutic Potential for Aldosterone Inhibition in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT02354352 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Phase III Study of Idebenone in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT01027884 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of Eteplirsen to Treat Advanced Stage Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT02286947 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- PDE Inhibitors in DMD Study (Acute Dosing Study) NCT01580501 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Long-Term Outcomes of Ataluren in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT03179631 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.