Congenital Cytomegalovirus: Efficacy of Antiviral Treatment in a Randomized Controlled Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2013-10-31, after 2012-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cmvtreatment withat timesymptomatichearing
Phrases that lowered it: the trialexaminationmedical historyphysicalantiviral -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 0.06 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2194 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 0.06 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 0.23 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2194 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 476 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- valganciclovir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Congenital Cytomegalovirus: Efficacy of Antiviral Treatment NCT02005822 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
- Asymptomatic Congenital CMV Treatment NCT03301415 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
- Valganciclovir Therapy in Infants and Children With Congenital CMV Infection and Hearing Loss NCT01649869 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Short-Term vs. Long-Term Valganciclovir Therapy for Symptomatic Congenital CMV Infections NCT00466817 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Randomized Controlled Trial of Valganciclovir for Cytomegalovirus Infected Hearing Impaired Infants NCT03107871 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.