Study of ARQ 197 in Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-03-31, after 2012-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priorregistrationadvancedto determinetumor
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatepatients whosafetyresistant -
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 40 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 27 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tivantinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Randomized Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Japanese Phase III Trial of ARQ 197 in Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) NCT02029157 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of ARQ 197 in Cirrhotic Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) NCT00802555 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Effectiveness and Safety of AMG 386 and Sorafenib to Treat Advanced or Inoperable Hepatocellular Cancer NCT00872014 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Trial of ARQ 197 in Patients With Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) Who Have Failed One Prior Systemic Therapy NCT00988741 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Dose Escalation Study of ARQ 197 in Combination With Sorafenib in Adult Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT00827177 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.