A Dose-Ranging Study of MK-1029 in Adults With Persistent Asthma (MK-1029-012)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-07-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: evidencecelluncontrolledcanceractive
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmasmokingkgbodybmi
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 899 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 24756 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effectiveness and Safety of MK-1029 in the Treatment of Persistent Asthma That is Not Controlled With Montelukast (ML) in Adults (MK-1029-011) NCT01624974 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study of MK-1029 in Participants With Persistent Asthma That Cannot Be Controlled With Montelukast (MK-1029-015) NCT02720081 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of MK-1029 in Participants With Mild to Moderate Asthma NCT01370317 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Effectiveness of MK0476 (Montelukast) in Patients With Chronic Asthma (0476-388) NCT00739297 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Two-part Study of the Effects of MK-1029 in Allergen-Challenged Asthmatics (MK-1029-003) NCT01343407 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.