TKI and Interferon Alpha Evaluation Initiated by the German Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Study Group - the TIGER Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnleukemiachronicdiagnosisventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialpatientssafetydrugfemale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 32 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nilotinib in PH+, BCR-, ABL+ CML Patients NCT01535391 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Nilotinib Treatment-free Remission Study in CML (Chronic Myeloid Leukemia) Patients NCT01784068 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Nilotinib 300 mg BID in Newly Diagnosed CP-CML Patients to Verify Disappearance of CD34+/Lin-Ph+ Cells NCT01856283 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Trial to Evaluate the Improvement of Chronic Low-grade AEs in Patients With Ph+ CML With Optimal Response to Imatinib When Switched to Nilotinib NCT02115386 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Randomized Phase Lll Study of Imatinib Dose Optimization vs Nilotinib in CML Patients With Suboptimal Response to Imatinib NCT00802841 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.