Efficacy and Safety of SAR339658 in Patients With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 659 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to screeningstablemonths priormultiplepatient
  Phrases that lowered it: moderate toto severehcvhepatitisvaccine
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 118 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of ST-0529 in Subjects With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT03844932 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Dose-Ranging Phase 2b Study of ABX464 in Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT03760003 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Vedolizumab IV in Pediatric Participants With Ulcerative Colitis (UC) or Crohn's Disease (CD) NCT03138655 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of SHP647 as Induction Therapy in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis NCT03259334 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• A Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Etrolizumab With Adalimumab and Placebo in Participants With Moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis (UC) in Participants Naive to Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) Inhibitors NCT02163759 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.