Carfilzomib, Pomalidomide, and Dexamethasone in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerprostateheartcelliv
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomalenalidomideinvestigatedexamethasonepain
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7481 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination Study of Pomalidomide, Marizomib, and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02103335 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Phase 1b Study Evaluating ACY-1215 (Ricolinostat) in Combination With Pomalidomide and Dexamethasone in Relapsed or Relapsed-and-Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02189343 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Pomalidomide, Ixazomib Citrate, and Dexamethasone in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Multiple Myeloma or Plasma Cell Leukemia NCT02547662 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Study of Pomalidomide, Cyclophosphamide, Dexamethasone in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02176213 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Pomalidomide, Dexamethasone, and Filgrastim-sndz in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01946152 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.