Study in Japan and Ex-Japan to Characterize the Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Response to Orteronel (TAK-700) in Chemotherapy-Naive Participants With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapytherapypriorpatient
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmalejointtakstudy to
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8689 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Comparing Orteronel Plus Prednisone in Participants With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer. NCT01193257 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Orteronel Plus Prednisone in Participants With Chemotherapy-Naive Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01193244 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Orteronel Maintenance Therapy in Patients With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer and Non-progressive Disease After First-line Docetaxel Therapy NCT01707966 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Comparative Study of Abiraterone Acetate Tablets (I) or ZYTIGA® in Patients With Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT04862091 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• ESK981 in Treating Patients With Metastatic Castrate-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03456804 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.