NOA-12: BIBF1120 and R-RT in Glioblastoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mribrainpriortreatment withtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: smokingtrialmedical historyrangediseases
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• APG101 in Glioblastoma NCT01071837 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Open Label Trial to Explore Safety of Combining Afatinib (BIBW 2992) and Radiotherapy With or Without Temozolomide in Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma Multiform NCT00977431 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• BIBF 1120 for Recurrent High-Grade Gliomas NCT01380782 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) With or Without Daily Temozolomide in the Treatment of Patients With Recurrent Malignant Glioma NCT00727506 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3, Pivotal Trial of VB-111 Plus Bevacizumab vs. Bevacizumab in Patients With Recurrent Glioblastoma (GLOBE) NCT02511405 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.