The Combination of ATRA and Danazol as Second-line Treatment in Adult Immune Thrombocytopenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (111 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: relapsedpatientsresistantlinerefractory
  Phrases that lowered it: randomizedand safetyefficacy andthe efficacystudy to
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Combination of ATRA and High-dose Dexamethasone as First-line Treatment in Adult Immune Thrombocytopenia NCT04217148 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• The Combination of ATRA and Eltrombopag as the Treatment of Steroid-resistant/Relapse ITP Based on MSC-C5b-9 NCT05438875 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Eltrombopag in Combination With a Short Course of Dexamethasone in Patients With Newly Diagnosed ITP NCT04346654 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• An Investigation of Dexamethasone With Different Doses in the Management of Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP) NCT02153060 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of ARGX-113 in Patients With ITP NCT03102593 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.