Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) vs. Everolimus in Pre-Treated Advanced or Metastatic Clear-cell Renal Cell Carcinoma (CheckMate 025)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-07-19, after 2012-10-09 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticcellcarcinomametastasesdisease
Phrases that lowered it: with advancedbmsknown orsolidor suspected -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 344 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4453 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 344 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 102 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4453 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2235 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- everolimus, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nivolumab Combined With Ipilimumab Versus Sunitinib in Previously Untreated Advanced or Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (CheckMate 214) NCT02231749 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab in Combination With Bevacizumab Versus Sunitinib in Participants With Untreated Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) NCT02420821 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab (BMS-936558; MDX-1106) in Combination With Sunitinib, Pazopanib, or Ipilimumab in Subjects With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) (CheckMate 016) NCT01472081 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- A Study of Nivolumab Combined With Cabozantinib Compared to Sunitinib in Previously Untreated Advanced or Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT03141177 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- CB-839 With Everolimus vs. Placebo With Everolimus in Participants With Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) NCT03163667 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.