Simtuzumab (GS-6624) in the Prevention of Progression of Liver Fibrosis in Adults With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningplaceboascendingsubjectsdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: of normalaminotransferaseindividualscancerliver
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 129 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 11 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Cilofexor in Adults With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Without Cirrhosis NCT02943460 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• PERSEUS: Preliminary Efficacy and Safety of Cenicriviroc in Adult Participants With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis NCT02653625 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• CM-101 in PSC Patients -The SPRING Study NCT04595825 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• A Trial of BTT1023 in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis NCT02239211 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Simtuzumab (SIM, GS-6624) in the Treatment of Cirrhosis Due to NASH NCT01672879 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.