Intravitreal Injections of Sirolimus in the Treatment of Geographic Atrophy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (102 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-02-29, after 2012-02-29 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-02-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: screening24prior toeyestudy
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantscancerlargethe trial -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 62.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 80 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 15768 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2282 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 62.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lidocaine, sirolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Sirolimus for Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT01445548 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Pilot Study of the Evaluation of Subconjunctival Sirolimus in the Treatment of Bilateral GA Associated With AMD NCT00766649 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Study to Compare the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal APL-2 Therapy With Sham Injections in Patients With Geographic Atrophy (GA) Secondary to Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT03525600 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Palomid 529 in Patients With Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration NCT01271270 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Study of Pegcetacoplan (APL-2) Therapy in Patients With Geographic Atrophy NCT02503332 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.