Obesity in Children and Adolescents: Associated Risks and Early Intervention
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (159 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-12-31, after 2013-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientchronictreatmentagediagnosis
Phrases that lowered it: physicaldiseasestype diabetesmass indexbody mass -
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 75000 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 10 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13961 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 10 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 18 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 3 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 75000 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13961 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Metformin in Obese Children and Adolescents NCT01487993 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Metformin Therapy for Overweight Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes NCT01881828 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Insulin Clamp Ancillary Study for Assessment of Insulin Resistance NCT02045290 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Combination of Metformin/Inulin vs Inulin on Adiponectin in Metabolic Syndrome NCT02773927 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Prebiotics and Metformin Improve Gut and Hormones in Type 2 Diabetes in Youth (MIGHTY-fiber) NCT04209075 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.