← Look up another trial

A Phase 3, Open-label Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of AA4500 Administered Twice Per Treatment Cycle for up to Four Treatment Cycles (2 x 4) in Men With Peyronie's Disease

NCT01685437 on ClinicalTrials.gov Phase 3 Endo USA Inc., a Keenova Therapeutics Company (industry) Started 2012-09-30 Completed
Riskier than 43% of active trials
this trial: 15% 0% 36%

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

How it ended

Completed on 2013-12-31, after 2012-09-30 start.

The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start

0% 23% 46% 69% 91% 0123456 yr completed 80% terminated 19%

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

What moved the score

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

The trial

Design

Phase
3 (typical: 2)
Number of arms
1 (typical: 2)
Allocation
not applicable (typical: randomized)
Design
single group (typical: parallel)
Primary purpose
treatment
Blinding
none
Has a data monitoring committee
No (typical: 56% yes)
Responsible party
sponsor
Collaborators
0
Keywords listed
1

Who can join

Minimum age
18
Maximum age
not given (typical: 71)
Sex
male (typical: all)
Accepts healthy volunteers
No (typical: 9% yes)

Sponsor's track record

Sponsor type
industry (typical: academic or other)
Sponsor's past trials
49 (typical: 32)
Sponsor's past termination rate
16.3% (typical: 9.9%)
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
12 (typical: 19)

Drug's FDA history

Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
0 (typical: 1)
Drug has FAERS history
No (typical: 64% yes)
Drug's FAERS reports before start
0 (typical: 2148)
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
0 (typical: 412.5)
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
Drug's FAERS reports with a death
no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)

Disease area and drugs

Disease areas
dermatology, urogenital
Drugs matched to FDA substances
none matched

Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.

Similar finished trials

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.