A Study of MK-8109 (Vintafolide) Given Alone or With Chemotherapy in Participants With Advanced Cancers (MK-8109-001)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellprimarychemotherapyradiationcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: this trialstandard therapy90prostateadvanced solid
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6433 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Escalation and Expansion Study of TRX518 in Combination With Cyclophosphamide Plus Avelumab in Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03861403 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• A Study of MK4827 in Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors or Hematologic Malignancies (MK-4827-001 AM8) NCT00749502 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• PM14 Administered Intravenously to Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT05076396 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Clinical Trial of AUR106 in Patients With Relapsed Advanced Malignancies NCT05861947 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Mirvetuximab Soravtansine vs. Investigator's Choice (IC) of Chemotherapy in Platinum-Resistant, Advanced High-Grade Epithelial Ovarian, Primary Peritoneal, or Fallopian Tube Cancers With High Folate Receptor-Alpha (FRα) Expression NCT04209855 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.