A Study Comparing Vemurafenib Versus Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Participants With Metastatic Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomacarcinomaunresectableplaceboadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsbreasthistory ofpositiveinhibitor
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 21 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 221 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vemurafenib Plus Cobimetinib in Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma Patients NCT03224208 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy of Vemurafenib in Combination With Cobimetinib (Continuous and Intermittent) in BRAFV600-mutation Positive Patients With Unresectable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma NCT02583516 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of a Sequencing Schedule of Cobimetinib Plus Vemurafenib Followed by Immunotherapy With an Anti- PD-L1 Antibody in Patients With Unresectable or Metastatic BRAF V600 Mutant Melanoma NCT02902029 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Combination of LGX818 Plus MEK162 Versus Vemurafenib and LGX818 Monotherapy in BRAF Mutant Melanoma NCT01909453 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing Trametinib and Dabrafenib Combination Therapy to Dabrafenib Monotherapy in Subjects With BRAF-mutant Melanoma NCT01584648 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.