Neoadjuvant BKM120 in High-risk Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-02-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eyeulntreatment withserumventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatemoderateparticipantdrugmultiple
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Finding Study of BKM 120 in Combination With LH-RH Agonists and Bicalutamide in Men With Non Castrate Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT02487823 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Irinotecan and BKM120 in Previously Treated Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT01304602 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• PI3K Inhibitor BKM120 and Docetaxel in Treating Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor That is Locally Advanced, Cannot Be Removed By Surgery, or Metastatic NCT01540253 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Preliminary Efficacy of BKM120, PI3K Kinase Inhibitor, With Advanced Leukemias NCT01396499 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• STAR Cape+BKM120 MBC With Brain Met NCT02000882 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.