The Efficacy of Jobelyn (Sorghum Bicolor Extract)in the Treatment of Sickle Cell Anemia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (32 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2012-08-31, after 2012-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: chronicsickleto determinedetermine if45
Phrases that lowered it: patientstherapycellthe effectstandard -
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 44169 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 14 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 14 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 44169 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8514 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- folic acid, proguanil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy, Safety Study and Benefit of Alkali Therapy in Sickle Cell Disease NCT01894594 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- The Safety and Effectiveness of Jobelyn in Pre-operative Management of Anaemia in Gynaecological Patients NCT01670955 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- L-Arginine in Children Having Sickle Cell Disease With Increased Tricuspid Regurgitant Jet Velocity NCT05470998 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Antioxidant Therapy to Reduce Inflammation in Sickle Cell Disease NCT01054768 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Hydroxyurea and Transfusion NCT03644953 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.