A Study to Assess Cardiovascular Outcomes Following Treatment With Omarigliptin (MK-3102) in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (MK-3102-018)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-03-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebosubjects30cellstable
  Phrases that lowered it: insulincancercombinationparticipantsmk
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 908 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of the Addition of Omarigliptin (MK-3102) to Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Have Inadequate Glycemic Control on Metformin Therapy (MK-3102-024) NCT01755156 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Efficacy of Omarigliptin (MK-3102) in ≥18 and <45 Year-Old Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Inadequate Glycemic Control (MK-3102-028) NCT01814748 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Addition of Omarigliptin (MK-3102) to Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Who Have Inadequate Glycemic Control on Combination Therapy With Glimepiride and Metformin (MK-3102-022) NCT01704261 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of the Addition of Omarigliptin (MK-3102) Compared With the Addition of Sitagliptin in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus With Inadequate Glycemic Control on Metformin (MK-3102-026) NCT01841697 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Omarigliptin (MK-3102) Compared With Glimepiride in Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus for Whom Metformin is Inappropriate (MK-3102-027) NCT01863667 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.