Safety and Immunogenicity of a New Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine in Infants

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 2% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: smalldiseasein differenteligiblephase ii
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationhealthyinactivatedparent
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 0.15 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 0.17 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase III Clinical Trial of Sabin Strain Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine (Vero Cell) NCT07297186 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety and Immunogenicity of Inactivated Poliomyelitis Vaccine in Healthy Infants NCT03169725 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity of a Sabin Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine. NCT03902054 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety and Immunogenicity of Sequential Vaccination of Sabin Inactivated Poliomyelitis Vaccine (Vero Cell) and Live Attenuated Poliomyelitis Vaccine in Healthy 2-month-old Infants NCT06752174 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• An Immunogenicity and Safety Study of Sabin Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine (Vero Cell) in 2-month-old Infants NCT03526978 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.